The Soccer Blog: Arsenal - Partizan Preview

Tuesday, 7 December 2010

Arsenal - Partizan Preview

Arsenal – Partizan Preview - - The Offside - Arsenal Football Club Blog

« Injury Updates, Gunners in Suits, and Almunia Could Leave in January | Home | Arsenal – Partizan PreviewBy: Martin | December 7th, 2010

Well, aside from the Carling Cup matches, this is the first match that can honestly be called a “season decider,” simply because it is a match we have to win if we want to ensure our place in the next round. It is a bit of a departure from past seasons, when we’ve been comfortably through by the sixth group stage fixture and could afford to basically field the Carling Cup side in the final matchday. When the group stage schedule was announced, I did notice that this fixture, the easiest of the group on paper, was last, and thought to myself (and wrote something to this effect on this site): “Well, it’s nice to have an easy one at the end if we’re in a position where we have to win, but hopefully we won’t put ourselves in that position.” But we did, and here we are.

So how did we get here? Well, a couple of reasons. First and foremost, we didn’t take care of business away from home, putting in poor performances at Braga and at Shakhtar. The Braga game in particular was pretty crushing, given how poor Braga have generally been all season and how shitty we were (although call it sour grapes if you want, I still think we would have at least drawn had the referee made the correct call on the penalty instead of giving Vela a yellow for diving). The other factor is just that the group has been a bit strange in that there have been 0 draws in the 10 matches played so far, which means that there are a lot of points out there. That hardly ever happens.

So here’s where we stand. Shakhtar lead the group with 12 points. We are in 2nd with 9 points. Braga also have 9 points, but are behind us on head-to-head goal differential. Partizan are out of contention for anything with 0 points, and have nothing to play for but pride. We play Partizan at the Emirates, and Shakhtar host Braga. The scenarios break down like this — Shakhtar will win the group with a win or a draw no matter what happens in our game. Or, if Shakhtar lose and we fail to win, they win the group. So the only way we win the group is by winning this match and Braga beating Shakhtar — that would lead to a three-way tie atop the group with 12 points, and we would beat out both teams on goal differential tiebreakers.

To advance, we have to win to ensure that we make it through. But we would make it through with a draw if Braga draws or loses, and make it through with a loss if Braga loses. Basically, we just have to finish even with or ahead of Braga on points (and the operative tiebreaker is head-to-head goal differential, so it doesn’t matter if Braga beats Shakhtar by 10 and we only win by 1 or whatever). And realistically, Shakhtar is a very, very tough place to play, especially in December, and Braga have been pretty crap away from home. The smart money is on them losing that match, which puts us through no matter what. Which is not to say we should be complacent and rely on Shakhtar to do our dirty work for us. It is an interesting question, though — who should we be rooting for in the other match? If Braga wins, that opens up the possibility that we could finish atop the group with a win; but it also opens up the possibility that we could be headed to the glamourous world of the Europa League with anything less than a win. On the other hand, if Shakhtar wins, it means we have no chance of winning the group, and face a very tough draw for the first knockout round; but it does ensure that we make it out of the group stage. Ultimately it doesn’t matter, of course — we just need to focus on winning our match and letting everything else happen.

In terms of tactics, I would recommend you to Zonal Marking’s excellent preview of the match. They mention Partizan’s main danger man, Cleo (who took both Partizan penalties in the first match, converting one), and left-winger Sasa Ilic. They also point out that 36 year-old center half Mladen Krstajic struggles with the pacier players in Serbia, so may be very vulnerable indeed to the pace of players like Walcott or Nasri. The bottom line is that Partizan are a team with a fraction of the talent available to us, who have nothing tangible to play for and and have been abysmal away from home. On the other hand, we’ve been brilliant in our two home wins in the Champions League, pasting Shakhtar 5-1 and beating Braga 6-0. Both those games did, however, feature both Cesc and Nasri playing together, which makes us a lot more lethal. No excuses for anything other than 3 points in this one.

In team news for us, the long-termers are still out — Almunia, Frimpong, Diaby, and Vermaelen. Cesc is still out with a hamstring injury. And Djourou is out with a slight thigh injury — Wenger said he could probably play if he had to, but won’t be risked. Alarmingly, though, the club has said that Koscielny is fit again. Give me a second to get up on my soapbox.

This is madness. One possibility is that the Arsenal physios misdiagnosed his injury as a concussion, and he didn’t actually get one and is fine. Which does not reflect well on the physios. But even more troubling, and by all accounts I have read this is right, is the possibility that he has a concussion but has been okayed to play anyway. If so, shame on the Arsenal medical staff and club for letting this happen. Research shows that players rushed back from concussions are at much more risk for more concussions. And players who suffer multiple concussions often see serious effects from them — they suffer decreased dognitive ability as they age, possibly even at increased risk of conditions like Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s, and are at much higher risk for depression and even suicide. If you’re curious I would recommend you to Alan Schwarz’s excellent series in the New York Times from I believe 2007 where he tracked down former (American) football players who had suffered concussions during their playing days, and what he actually found was pretty alarming. Soccer has nowhere near the same level of head contact as American football, but that is certainly no excuse for rushing a player back. Being cavalier with a player’s long-term physical and mental health over a game is shameful, and if Koscielny is concussed, the club should be ashamed of itself. This isn’t a matter of “having his bell rung” that he can just “shake off.” And it has nothing to do with him being tough or injury-resistant. A concussion is a brain injury, and needs to be treated and respected as such.

Anyway, he is apparently going to play, and I really hope he’s going to be all right. Speaking from experience, I got 2 “mild” concussions playing American football when I was younger, and both times I pretty much felt fine a couple of days after, but if I tried to do anything strenuous (like running on a treadmill) or turned my head too quickly, I would sometimes get headaches and/or vertigo, and would occasionally get extremely nauseous for no apparent reason. Those symptoms lasted 2-3 weeks each time. So I do hope this isn’t a case of “he says he’s fine, so let him play.” Of course he’s going to say he’s fine, it’s what players do. It’s the team’s responsibility to watch out for his health, and I’m just worried that the team has abdicated that responsibility here.

My best guess at a lineup:

Flaps

Sagna-Koscielny-Squillaci-Gibbs

Song-Denilson

Theo-Rosicky-Nasri

van Persie

Bench: Wojo, Clichy, Eboue, Wilshere, Bendtner, Chamakh, Arshavin

At the back, Flaps starts in goal, and our center backs are pretty much picked by necessity. I say Gibbs gets a start out on the left — he played against Partizan in the last match and played pretty well, and has looked very good lately when he’s played. Eboue is back and available, and it would not surprise me if he got the start, but he has been abysmal in his last few appearances at right-back, so I’m penciling in Sagna out of wishful thinking if nothing else.

In midfield, I think Denilson will see a start in this one, I’m just not sure if it will be Song or Wilshere that plays alongside him. Let’s flip a coin — heads for Song, tails for Wilshere . . . and . . . it’s heads. Song it is. Which means it will probably actually be Wilshere. Who starts in the playmaking role could be interesting — Rosicky has played there, Nasri has played there, van Persie has played there a bit, and Wilshere can play there. I don’t have a good feel at all for who it will be, but I’m going to guess Rosicky will be the guy. Could be any of them.

Up front, it’s anybody’s guess, too. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Chamakh will get a much-deserved break in this one, and that we’ll see Robin start up front for the first time this season. Theo is rested and deserves a spot on the right, which leaves the left. Could be Arshavin, or even Vela, but I’m going to go with the man of the moment, Samir Nasri.

I will say that I don’t have much of a feel at all for what Wenger will do with this lineup, but I do think we are so much better than Partizan that it allows him to rotate, even if this match is one we have to win. And we have enough healthy players in midfield and forward that we can rotate quite a bit and still have a pretty strong team out there. The other nice thing is that our match against Manchester United is on Monday, not Saturday, so it’s 5 days after this one, which means that the players who play should have plenty of time to rest before the big one. I would still hope that if we can (knock on wood) get out to a big lead, we might see some substitutions early in the second half of guys who have been playing a lot lately.

The previous meeting of the teams resulted in a 3-1 Arsenal win in Belgrade. It was a pretty scrappy match — we went up 1-0 early on an Arshavin goal, then could have lost the lead in the 33rd minute when we conceded a penalty, but Flaps did well to save it. Then they had a last-man penalty in the 56th minute which saw them go down to 10 men, but Arshavin could not convert the penalty so it stayed 1-0. Chamakh finally broke through to double the lead, and Squillaci made it 3-0 soon after. We then conceded a stupid penalty late on, which was convereted for a consolation goal, but they were never going to come back from that deficit down to 10-men, so we hung on to win pretty comfortably.

Let’s hope for more of the same tomorrow. With our home record and their away record, it looks pretty easy, but there’s a reason these things are played on the pitch and not on the paper, so you never know. I feel pretty confident, as I’ve said before, but the thought that we could be playing on Thursday nights should everything go pear-shaped tomorrow night is pretty frightening when you think about it. But we really shouldn’t have much of a problem dispatching these guys.

Also, in a brief note of personal news, I asked MLSGF (”My long-suffering girlfriend,” for readers who haven’t been reading this site for years) to marry me over the weekend, and, after several hours of convincing, I am proud to say she reluctantly agreed to become my MLSW. Don’t worry, I’ve already told her that the wedding has to come either over the summer or during an international break.

Anyway, let’s just wipe the floor with these guys, get 3 points, and move on the next round. I will be stuck at work as usual so will be relying on DVR to watch the match later in the evening, so Sairax will be your matchday spirit guide.

Come on Arsenal.

**********

Don’t forget to follow the Arsenal Offside on Twitter for the latest news, links, and updates: www.twitter.com/arsenaloffside

Some Related Stories:Partizan – Arsenal PreviewPartizan 1 – Arsenal 3: Gunners Tough Out Win over 10-Man Belgrade (UPDATED with Player Ratings)Partizan Highlights; + Vermaelen Out for ChelseaChampions League Draw: It’s Shakhtar, Braga, and PartizanBraga – Arsenal Preview

Category: Arsenal News, Champions League, Fixtures, Preview

Tags: Arsenal News, Champions League, Fixtures, Preview
« Injury Updates, Gunners in Suits, and Almunia Could Leave in January | Home | Darren_VCongrats on the Engagement Martin!

And in other news, I just listened to the 'It's Up for Grabs Now' pocast. If anyone here doesn't listen to it, you are seriously missing out, it is absolutely off the rails.
It's a shame they only podcast once a week, sheer quality.MartinIt is pretty great, I secon that recommendation -- I listen to that, the Arseblog podcast, and the Guardian Football Weekly podcast for a more general worldview. All 3 are great, and funny to different degrees.

And thanks for the congrats, we're very happy and excited (and in my case, relieved she said yes).SairaxCONGRATULATIONS MARTIN! Martin's getting married yay! :DSairaxI can't believe we have put ourselves in this position. Honestly, if we don't win, that'll be bloody awful. Bad enough that in 2nd we're on course to face Madrid or Barca in the next stage. Stay focused and get those 3 points. Come on Arsenal!blog comments powered by Disqus

Search The Offside

The Soccer Blog

Pages

Tuesday, 7 December 2010

Arsenal - Partizan Preview

No comments:

Post a Comment