The Soccer Blog: Midseason Review, Part I: Revisiting Preseason Predictions

Monday, 20 December 2010

Midseason Review, Part I: Revisiting Preseason Predictions

By: Martin | December 20th, 2010

Well, in the absence of any actual Arsenal news, Sairax and I thought this week would be a good time to do a midseason review in the long run-up to the Chelsea match a week from today. Yes, we know it’s not technically midseason yet. But given how fast and furious the matches are going to be coming starting next week, this is probably our only chance for a while to have several days of non-match preview/review stuff to put up. First up, we revisit my doubtless incorrect preseason predictions, and see how they’re doing:

Question 1: Will the Top 4 Change?

My Answer: Yes (noting that Tottenham look vulnerable, and Manchester City and *ahem* Liverpool look strong, and pointing out that our poor defending could cost us our top 4 spot).

Midseason Verdict: Not bad. Manchester City certainly look like they mean business, and have to be favorites to finish in the top 4 at the moment. We let Tottenham stay in the discussion by blowing a 2-goal lead against them at home, and they are right there despite their injuries and very shaky defending. Liverpool are crap, though, I was bad wrong about that one.

Question 2: Who Will be the League’s Leading Goalscorer?

My Answer: Drogba. I also noted that Rooney, Tevez, Torres, and van Persie could be strong contenders for the golden boot.

Midseason Verdict: Drogba has 7, 4 off Berbatov’s league-leading 11. But Drogba has struggled with malaria and a lack of support from his suddenly-crap team — I’m not sure he’s out of it yet. Tevez has 10, but other than that I missed badly. van Persie hasn’t played much at all, Rooney hasn’t scored from open play since March, and Torres looks distracted, disinterested, and out of form.

Question 3: Which Newcomer Will Have the Biggest Impact on the Premiership?

My Answer: Yaya Toure (also mentioned Marouane Chamakh, Ramires, and David Silva).

Midseason Verdict: Eh, I don’t know about this one. While he hasn’t looked anything like the highest-paid player in the Premiership, Yaya has been instrumental for City, and has provided the closest thing they have resembling an attacking threat from midfield. But Chamakh has been immense for Arsenal. Ramires has looked out of his element, and Silva has been very solid for City as well.

Question 4: Who’s Going to Get Relegated?

My Answer: Wigan, West Brom, and Blackpool.

Midseason Verdict: Yeesh. They didn’t look too bad on paper, but my comments in support of my decision are awfully bad. I dismissed West Brom as a yo-yo team, and they have shown that they are much different than the 2008-2009 version. And of Blackpool, I said, “Realistically, this season is just about grabbing the 40 million or so in television revenue and trying to avoid Derby County levels of ineptness.” Whoops. They currently sit 10th in the table, with 22 points, have won 4 out of their 10 away matches, and realistically only need about 15 or so points from their remaining 22 matches to ensure safety. You can’t give them enough credit. And it does look like I at least pegged Wigan correctly, although they are only 18th on goal differential. In my defense, who could have foreseen a season where NONE of the promoted teams get sent back down? I’m not sure that’s ever happened before. I’m still not completely sold on Blackpool or West Brom, and they are both within 6 points of the drop, so my prediction may be proven correctly yet.

Question 5: Who’s Going to Win the League?

My Answer: Chelsea.

Midseason Verdict: Well, it looked good for the first few months of the season, but then Chelsea went into an incredible tailspin that has really seen their season go to pot quickly. If they snap out of it and get some key players back from injury they could certainly do it, but anyone who has watched them play the last month wouldn’t bet much money on them winning much of anything.

Question 6: Who’s Going to Win the Champions League?

My Answer: Chelsea.

Midseason Verdict: I’m not counting them out, but they would hardly be favorites at this point with their struggles and the excellent play of some other teams, particularly Barcelona and Real Madrid. If I had to pick today, I would definitely pick Barcelona.

Question 7: If you had to give Arsenal’s Offseason a Grade, what would it be?

My Answer: Incomplete, because I still believed Wenger would sign a keeper and a defender (if I had known about Squillaci signing, probably would have given it a B).

Midseason Verdict: That’s probably about right. Chamakh was a fantastic pick-up for free, and Koscielny and Squillaci, while they have had their ups and downs, were certainly much-needed defensive reserves. And for all my bleating about getting a goalkeeper, Wenger’s faith in Flaps has been repaid big-time this season.

Question 8: Which Newcomer will have the biggest impact?

My Answer: Koscielny. Although in my defense I said the impact may not be entirely positive, but because we were in such dire need of defenders he would play more right away.

Midseason Verdict: Wrong, obviously; Chamakh has had a much greater impact. Although in my defense, I don’t think anyone could have foreseen that van Persie and Bendtner would have been hurt for so long and Chamakh would have had so much to do right away. I also didn’t know that Squillaci would be signed at that time.

Question 9: Who Should Wenger Buy Before September 2?

My Answer: Defender and a goalkeeper

Midseason Verdict: As I said above, Wenger’s decision to not buy a keeper has been vindicated by Flaps’s excellent play so far this season, but he did go out and buy a center half with lots of experience, which is exactly what we wanted. And while Squillaci isn’t a world-beater, he has come in really, really handy this season, playing 90 minutes in every single match since he’s arrived at the club other than Carling Cup fixtures.

Question 10: Who Will Be Arsenal’s Biggest Disappointment This Season?

My Answer: Cesc Fabregas. I quote (myself):

Look, I still like Cesc. And I still think he likes Arsenal and wants to win, so he will give it 100%. But I can’t believe that all the nonsense this summer (which he ultimately was responsible for) hasn’t proved to be a huge distraction, and that he will be a little less focused than he was in seasons past on winning a trophy at Arsenal. Plus he spent all summer training (and playing a little) in the World Cup, then partied and vacationed for the next month, now he’s off with Spain again. His position as team captain is a bit tenuous, and I don’t think Arsenal fans will embrace him as much as they did in seasons past.

I think he’ll be good, but I just think that all these things put together will mean Cesc slips a little bit from last season’s world-class form, and will probably take a month or so to really get back to match fitness and sharpness. And I think that step back will be disappointing, especially after all the worrying fans did over the summer, and how hard the club had to fight to keep him.

Midseason Verdict: I think I got that pretty spot-on. He’s been good, but not great, for us this season, and I think clearly is suffering some health and fitness hangover from the World Cup.

Question 11: Who Will Be Arsenal’s Most Pleasant Surprise?

My Answer: Samir Nasri. To quote myself again, “I’m telling you, folks — this is the year of the Nasri.”

Midseason Verdict: (standing back, graciously acknowledging applause)

Question 12: Who Will Be Arsenal’s Player of the Season?

My Answer: Robin van Persie. Although I did note that that pick was of the “if he stays healthy” variety, which in retrospect looks so foolish that I even thought he might be able to stay healthy an entire season.

Midseason Verdict: Swing and a miss!

Question 13: Come January, what will be the biggest story everyone is talking about?

My Answer: Will Cesc Leave Arsenal for Barcelona?

Midseason Verdict: Well, I do think we’ll hear plenty about that in January given that the two teams have been drawn together again in the Champions League. But some of the other potential stories I mentioned — especially “Can Arsenal Win the League?” and “Can Arshavin Set the Record for Most Time Spent Walking in a Premiership Match?”, are still in play, too. And I definitely did not foresee “Arsenal heavy favorites to win the league cup” being a big story, but that may be the biggest story going in the Arsenal-verse at the moment.

Question 14: Will Arsenal Stick with the 4-3-3?

My Answer: Yes, although I did say that it might be better to switch to a 4-2-3-1.

Midseason Verdict: Well, some people still call it a 4-3-3, but it is really a 4-2-3-1. I think it’s worked okay so far, and has brought out the best in some players (Chamakh, Nasri). I think it will be a great formation for Cesc once he gets a decent run of health. But we have still struggled to break down good teams, and our 2 “holding” midfielders are often anything but, venturing forward at ill-advised times and leaving the backline completely exposed. I was an advocate of switching formations, and I still think this formation could be tinkered with to bring out the best in a lot of players, but the jury is still very much out on this. Add in the fact that certain players (van Persie, Walcott) have skill sets that don’t necessarily match up well with the formation, and it will be interesting to see whether we stick with it for the rest of the season.

Question 15: Will Arsenal Win a Trophy This Season?

My Answer: I said no for the express purpose of reverse-jinxing it, because I have picked Arsenal to win a trophy pretty much every year since 2005.

Midseason Verdict: This reverse jinx thing may just be working, so I’m sticking to it — Arsenal will not win a trophy this season.

There really is not much else going on. There are rumors that Bundesliga side Wolfsburg, managed by our old friend Schteve McClaren, are preparing to make a £13 million bid for Denilson in January. I guess in a way it makes sense — Denilson has clearly been surpassed in the pecking order by Jack Wilshere this season, and with the return of Aaron Ramsey and Abou Diaby coming up, he may see a fight to get much game action. And from his point of view, he started 36 out of Arsenal’s 38 league matches in 2008-2009, leading the club; started 19 out of 38 matches last season; and has started only 3 so far this season. While I would say that he is still developing as a player and only played that much in 2008-2009 because of injuries to other players, I could see some frustration from his point of view. As an omnipresent starter at the age of 20, he must have thought his first-team future was bright. Now he finds himself in a dogfight with other players, two of them younger than him, to get games. But for what’s it worth, he’s never seemed unhappy at the club, and frankly, when he has played this season, I think he’s as good as he’s ever been. He’s my second least-favorite Arsenal player, but I have to admit I’ve come around on him a bit this season; in years past I’ve always asked why he’s been played so much, but this year I find myself asking why he doesn’t play more.

Still, that kind of money for Denilson would be tough to turn down, and if Arsene Wenger would use that to buy a good young defender (the article mentions both Mamadou Sakho and Serdar Tasci), I think that would definitely strengthen the team. And with Song, Wilshere, Ramsey, Diaby, Eastmond, and Frimpong next season all capable of playing in front of the backline, I think we could manage without Denilson. Isn’t it cute after all these years how we Arsenal fans still entertain this illusion that Wenger would actually use transfer income to buy players? Ha. Honestly, I hope Denilson isn’t sold — he’s a good player who can help the team this season. And I think Wenger is ready to go to war with the army he has, so to speak — I don’t think we’ll really see many big changes to the first-team in January.

Okay, that’s it. I’ll be back with more Midseason Review goodness tomorrow, and Sairax will hopefully get her computer issues (I think they are actually issues with the Offside site) straightened out at some point so she can rejoin us.

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« Arsenal – Stoke Postponed | Home | SairaxHUZZAH!!! I'm back!! I missed you all so much *sobs*bapdumscrew the 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1, skysports says its a 4-5-1 and who disagrees with them right?
apparently wenger said that every good club needs three world class goalkeepers therefore aluminia isnt leaving. is that true? cause i cant think of any big club with a head turning goalkeeper. or am i just under rating pinto and the likeMartinIf you charted average position on the pitch, I think there would be no doubt that we play a 4-2-3-1. The two back midfielders (Song and Wilshere), while the do get forward, certainly play back of the advanced central midfielder, and the two wing players are well ahead of them.bapdumwhoops i meant to saay i cant think of any big club witha head turning second keeper. sorryFred Jacobgo back to 4-4-2 with Chamahk and Persie up topFred JacobNo comment on the world class goalkeeping situation, cause not matter how good a goalkeeper is if he has crazy defender like sebastian passing the ball to Nani or even Arshavin taking a jog in the or penalty box and losing the ball to make it worse or Clichy not defending. what can a great keeeper do about that, absolutely nothingGunnerPeteGood article and nice to read an opinion without being over the top. I mind you, have a wish to be totally stunned by Arsene The Great as he used to when he first arrived. Do you remember those days when he added to suddenly top stars to our already very good squad ? Well, imagine how we would all feel if by the end of January we had seen the following? :-

Out......Denilson (sorry I do not think he is is as good as Aneke ) Almunia, Bentner, Eboue, Clichy..Nordveitd......Total Cash approx £ 45 mill.

IN.....Benzema, Cahill, Matuidi, Hazard. Cost approx £ 52 mill.

Because I can be dreaming I would say that every team in Europe would be suffering from Loose bowels if that happened. With Vermaelen back, and Bortello, plus Ramsey...no team even Barca would have a squad to match us.
One day Arsene will either go for broke and do something similar or he will faze himself out to the directors box.Gigi_manYeah, agree about Denilson, he is just not there imo.
Throw Clichy out as well, for Eboe amn I have an Arshavin-like crush since he came back last season and was important even scoring.

I d bring in Tevez since he is fed up at City. the guy just wants to score, let them score here. (dont know about his wages though bur if he is willing to leave City he must be willing to cut them).

One class CB please, in the winter window, thats a mustFred JacobBenzema O pleasebapdumas much as i like arsenal, i think barcelona are just in a class of their own. as much as i like benzema and hazard, i just dont think theyd fit into our squad. maybe get a good left back to fill in for clichy while gibbs toughens up his legs?Gigi_manI think the Barza effect is caused by states of mind (so like us in big games, but with every team, so everyone is so self conscious that it makes them take advantage, and kudos for them becasue that effect can happen either way)MartinAnd as I've said before, I understand that he's creative and useful, and has the kind of talent and footballing mind to allow him to see and do things that no one else on the pitch can do.

But he's been pretty frank before in saying that he doesn't much give a crap about the club or its fans, and his effort on the pitch is often appalling. He doesn't celebrate goals he wasn't involved with, and seems pretty indifferent to whether we win or lose. He's made no secret of the fact that he'd rather be at a "bigger" club. So I'm not saying he shouldn't play or should be let go, but I'm just not going to like him the way I like players who actually give a crap whether we win or lose.Fred JacobOr so that's why he plays like that, I wonder why Wenger still starts him and he has that kinda attitude.MartinThis was supposed to be in response to Fred Jacob's question, below, but for some reason my work computer and Disqus don't get along, and sometimes it will post a reply as its own post, and won't let me edit posts. So this was not an ad hominem attack on Arshavin, just an answer to a question.Fred JacobWho are your favorite Arsenal player for the season
1) Theo
2) Gibbs
3) Diaby
4) Samir
5) Vermelen
6) Cesc (the traitor)
7) Van Persie (Although he cant score a free kick to save his life)
8) Chamahk
9) Jacky
10) Sagna
11) Wojo

The others i only like them when they do something goodGigi_manReally, no Flapsy...?Gigi_manHavent read it yet, but kudos on the subject and its timing (I was really asking myself with the suspension and all, how would I survive without Arsenal playing..?)Fred JacobSo Martin who is your least favorite Arsenal PlayerMartinArshavinGigi_manHurts..hurts :Pbapdumhahahaha saw that coming. nice job on being fair to all the other players who disappoint sometimes (especially aluminia) . the positiveness and logic/sense is refreshingFred JacobDawn wasn't you the guy saying that he has the most assist on the team or something like that lol

Well we have something in common i don't like him either but having Denilson close to Arshavin. For me Clichy is becoming one my least favorites nowblog comments powered by Disqus