The Soccer Blog: Match Preview: Liverpool v. Everton, 01.16.11

Sunday, 16 January 2011

Match Preview: Liverpool v. Everton, 01.16.11

By: Ed | January 15th, 2011
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Everton visit Anfield for the 215th Merseyside derby.

And, for what seems like the 215th time this season, Liverpool are tasked with rebounding from a difficult result.

Obviously things are different now—Kenny Dalglish is in charge, most of the squad is available and on full fitness, and the atmosphere around the club is much more positive.

But that doesn’t change the fact that tomorrow presents another first step, another turning point, and, to echo the cries of last year’s campaign, another “new season.” It’d be nice for Liverpool to be in a spot where this type of forced optimism isn’t entirely necessary, but for the time being it’ll have to do. And as I mentioned, it’s much easier to take this time around, with the right man in charge and a fanbase that, for the one of the first times in nearly two years, seems to be completely unified behind the club. That tends to happen around the time of the derby anyhow, but with Dalglish’s appointment and the promise of better things to come, I get the feeling that most supporters are on the same page. Just not those that think Martin Kelly should be brought along slowly.

So Everton’s visit is emotionally-charged, yes, but it’s also an opportunity for Liverpool to claw their way back into relevancy. The other half of Liverpool is in a relatively similar position—level on points but ahead on goal difference, David Moyes’ club has been all over the map. Since winning the first derby of the season 2-0 at Goodison, they’ve won only three league matches, but two were against City and Spurs. They’ve lost a few close ones and drawn the majority, but were also thumped at home by West Brom. From a Liverpool perspective, though, seven points in their last four is something to aspire to.

Moyes’ squad has remained relatively consistent throughout the season, and tomorrow he’ll only have a few ruled out. The big miss is Tim Cahill, who’s with Australia in the Asian Cup; the only other regular Everton will miss is Phil Jagielka, who’s missed three of the last four with a thigh injury. They’ll still be anchored by Tim Howard in goal, though, and Leighton Baines, Johnny Heitinga, and Sylvain Distin will all be available in defense, and they’ll likely be joined by Irish international Seamus Coleman. Phil Neville, Mikel Arteta, Marouane Fellaini, and wantaway Steven Pienaar (whom Moyes has refused to rule out despite accepting an offer) could figure in the midfield behind Louis Saha and the void left by Cahill.

As for Liverpool:

1. Who will start for Liverpool?
2. What’s the most important factor for the Reds?
3. Who’s going to win and what’s going to be the scoreline?

1. Who will start for Liverpool?

Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Aurelio
Kuyt Lucas Meireles Maxi
Ngog Torres

—Jamie Carragher continues to be the only long-term sufferer on the injury list. He’ll be joined by Steven Gerrard, who’s serving the second of a three-match ban after the red card at Old Trafford. Those that were MIA at Blackpool (Fabio Aurelio, Ryan Babel, Joe Cole) were either omitted by choice or for rest (I’d guess), so I expect to see those names back tomorrow.

—I guess at this point our tactical hopes and dreams are somewhat closer to fruition, and while I’m not sure the above is what we’ll see tomorrow, I think there’s a great chance we get front-foot football. Dalglish has brought a more fluid formation to the squad, and we can all agree that it’s going to take some getting used to for the squad despite signs of encouragement. I think we can also agree that it’s much better suited to the personnel, but part of shifting away from the football we saw earlier in the season involves some growing pains.

—Martin Skrtel probably needs a break at this point, but I’d guess they plow through with the Skrtel-Agger pairing unless fitness becomes an issue. Hopefully Aurelio’s back in the squad, which would dismiss any thought of giving Glen Johnson another run at left back. If that’s the case, I think Martin Kelly gets the day off and Johnson slides back to the right side.

—Raul Meireles and Lucas again in central midfield, and even if they haven’t been as cohesive in the past few matches, I think they’re needed for a match that’s going to require some steadying. Dirk Kuyt is a mainstay in big matches regardless of form, and I think he’s opposite Maxi behind Fernando Torres and David Ngog up top. As usual, none of this will happen, and that’s probably a very good thing.

2. What’s the most important factor for the Reds?

I think Dalglish was right to point out that Liverpool can’t come out with their hair on fire and expect everything to fall into place, but for a squad who’s looked dispassionate for most of the year, I don’t think there would be any harm in embracing the emotion of the fixture. Tomorrow’s atmosphere is going to be absolutely nuts, and I think capitalizing on that, in some way, would serve Liverpool well. Coming out as they did against Blackpool would be welcome, and from there it’s a matter of sustaining the effort for a full 90.

3. Who’s going to win and what’s going to be the scoreline?

Dalglish’s first Anfield match in twenty years in the Merseyside derby is too much to ignore, so I’ll say 2-0 to Liverpool in a flip of the reverse fixture.

No problems catching this one tomorrow on TV, as it’ll be on Sky Sports 1 in the UK and Fox Soccer Channel in the US. It’s likely that there’ll be plenty of streams available as well, so I’ll have the matchday thread scheduled to go up early in the morning with links to other, more shadowy ways to watch in addition to any news in the run-up.

Hope you all enjoy the rest of your Saturday, and let’s all hope for a big result tomorrow morning.

Some Related Liverpool Posts:Match Preview: Liverpool v. Blackpool, 01.12.11Match Preview: Liverpool v. Bolton, 10.31.10Match Preview: Liverpool v. Everton, 10.17.10Match Preview: Liverpool v. Stoke City, 11.13.10Match Preview: Liverpool v. Birmingham City, 09.12.10

Category: Match Previews, Miscellaneous, Premier League, Team News

Tags: Christian Poulsen, Dani Pacheco, Daniel Agger, David Ngog, Dirk Kuyt, Fabio Aurelio, Glen Johnson, Jamie Carragher, Joe Cole, Kenny Dalglish, Liverpool v. Everton, Lucas, Martin Kelly, Martin Škrtel, Match Previews, Maxi Rodriguez, Merseyside derby, Milan Jovanovic, Miscellaneous, Pepe Reina, Premier League, Raúl Meireles, Ryan Babel, Sotirios Kyrgiakos, Steven Gerrard, Team News
Tweet « Woo! Threepeat! Woo! Australia! | Home | Matchday: Liverpool v. Everton »BgurakanUp for this one (Liverpool vs Chelsea 2005 CL semi upfor it). The importance of this match can't be underestimated, will shape the rest of the season - don't really care how we play, fluke goal, og, anything to get us up and running.LFC4LIFEAlso, i doubt n'gog will be starting.Dalgish will make use of the other more experienced playersLFC4LIFEWe will definitely win.Anyone going to anfield,be prepared to lose your hearingarn00bNice statistical analysis, but all that says is that the responsibility of scoring goals is more evenly spread in Liverpool than in Everton. Liverpool is more dependent on Gerrard than Everton on Cahill. If Everton had a striker, (a real one) then there'd be no competition.
Everton really play like a team. Liverpool without Gerrard play like a bored team.JohnEd and Noel, I wonder if you would find this interesting: I've been working on creating a "meaningful" goals tally for Liverpool this season. Basically, its an attempt to quantify exactly how many goals a game we can expect from Liverpool. I feel that we are SEVERELY overestimating our ability to score with the likes of blackpool, west brom, and newcastle. First, what we need to do is to take the number of goals scored (in the prem of course, all of this is only in the prem) 25 and subtract two things: All the goals scored by the top two scorers (torres and gerrard), as well as all what I will call "fluke" goals (goals scored by players who do not usually score, or have only scored one goal all season).

Goal Total - Top 2 - Fluke Goals = 10 goals.

Now we look at the 10 goals. How evenly are they spread out?

10 Goals: 3 Kuyt, 3 Maxi, 2 Soto, 2 Ngog.

So in review, The ten goals are spread out amongst 4 players. Now look at the minutes played for each of these players, to determine whether or not we can expect these players to play consistently and continue to score goals:

Minutes played: Kuyt - 1389, Maxi - 1247, Soto - 811, Ngog -968.

Certainly, it can be concluded that only Kuyt and Maxi see enough minutes to keep a generally lagging pace with the leaders in minutes played (Meireles, Lucas, Gerrard, Torres, Skrtel, Carragher, Reina, and Johnson). So for the sake of my argument and model, I will now throw out the goals scored by Soto and Ngog, as they do not see enough minutes to warrant an expectation of goals.

So, the equation is now (NEG = Non-Expectant Goalscorers):

Goal Total - Top 2 - Fluke Goals - NEGs = 6 goals scored by 2 players.

In comparison, using the exact same equation, here are the totals for a few other recent opponents:

Blackpool = 11 goals scored by 4 players
Bolton = 8 goals scored by 4 players

As you can see, Bolton was a fluke and Blackpool was exactly right.

By contrast, I would say we have an extremely good chance against these upcoming opponents:

Everton = 2 goals scored by 1 player
Wolves = 4 goals scored by 2 players

So in conclusion, to understand what this all may well mean, add the Top 2 Goalscorers back into the equation. If one of them (such as Gerrard and Cahill tomorrow) is not playing, subtract his goals from the total.

Head-To-Head
Liverpool v. Everton:
LFC
Goal Total - Top 2 - Fluke Goals - NEGs = 6 by 2 + 7 by 1 = 13 by 3
Everton
Goal Total - Top 2 - Fluke Goals - NEGs = 2 by 1 + 6 by 2 = 8 by 3

We will win the derby. I am confident in these facts, not on gut feelings. But that does not mask the fact that we are not scoring enough. Somebody, either from inside the club or from the outside, needs to step up and start scoring more goals in consistent minutes or this club is doomed to mid-table, maybe even relegation fights. Because that is the sort of numbers we put up.

Regards,

John in Dallas.lfc4eternityGreat analysis, but a factor surely must be the 'effect' those top scorers have on the game as whole...we've talked at length about confidence (and who wouldn't feel better having Gerrard and Torres on the pitch) but how many of the total goals including 'other' goals have been influenced by Gerrard/Torres...quite a few assists there i think, which naturally means that without both those 2's passes, corners, and free kicks which did lead to the 'others' scoring, the whole pattern and results change significantlyChrisLFCFantastic statistical analysis. I'm still very, very new to this game but I'm not sure how much you can really gain from the information it provides. To "discount" the top two scorers from any club gives you a measurement of how much your depth adds to your overall goal output...not necessarily the success that you have on any given day. Like I said though, great analysis...and with my limited knowledge, maybe there's more to it that I'm not seeing.Noel-----------------Reina-------------
Johnson Kyrgiakos Agger Aurelio
-----------------Lucas-------------
---------Meireles Pacheco--------
----Kuyt------------------Maxi----
----------------Torres-------------

...seems like an interesting gamble/guess, so why not.

Most important factor tomorrow might be the crowd, with it being the derby and Dalglish's first home match back as manager, and that hopefully means a cauldron that helps push the players over the top.

On the back of that, I'll second 2-0.blog comments powered by Disqus