The Soccer Blog: Champions League Group Stage Draw Preview

Thursday, 26 August 2010

Champions League Group Stage Draw Preview

By: Martin | August 25th, 2010

The four pots are set, and it’s coming tomorrow. We’ve gotten pretty fortunate the last couple of years — will our good luck continue, or is time for some karmic payback?

In 2008-2009, we were drawn with Porto, Dynamo Kyiv, and Fenerbahce. While we didn’t win the group, this was largely down to playing our reserves in the final group stage match against Porto in Portugal, who beat us to take the group by a single point. But we were never in danger of not making the knockout rounds, and highlights included a 5-2 drubbing of Fenerbahce in Turkey and a 4-0 beatdown of Porto at the Emirates.

Last season, we got an even easier path, drawing Olympiakos, AZ Alkmaar, and Standard Liege. We won the group handily (despite playing our reserves again in the final match). We won all 3 of our home matches by at least 2 goals, and only lost the final match (which, again, didn’t feature our regular starting XI).

So what to expect this year? Well, for the uninitiated, the way it works is that the 32 teams that make the group stage are divided into 4 “pots,” according to each club’s UEFA coefficient. This is designed to prevent a number of the big clubs ending up in the same group and knocking each other out ahead of knockout play. However, it’s an imperfect system, as it relies on a club’s performance in European competition over the previous 5 seasons, which does not always correlate with the current quality of the club. Of the 32 qualified teams, it breaks down thusly (in order from highest to lowest-ranked — overall coefficient ranking, including teams that did not qualify for the group stage, is in parentheses):

Pot A
Barcelona (1)
Manchester United (2)
Chelsea (3)
Arsenal (4)
Bayern Munich (6)
Internazionale (8)
AC Milan (9)
Lyon (10)

So good news is that we won’t have to meet any of those teams until the knockout rounds. So let’s look at some of the teams we could play:

Pot B:

Werder Bremen (11)
Real Madrid (13)
Roma (14)
Shakhtar Donetsk (16)
Benfica (17)
Valencia (20)
Marseille (25)
Panathinaikos (29)

Some tricky ones there, to be sure. Obviously, I think the name that jumps out from that list is Real Madrid, which is going to be a really unfortunate draw for one of the Pot A teams. With the influx of talent they’ve brought in the last couple of years, and now Mourinho, a man who has won the Champions League with two different sides, at the helm, they’re going to be one of the tougher teams in this competition, and drawing them would leave Arsenal little margin for error. Frankly, I wouldn’t say there are many weak links in that group — Bremen and Shakhtar have had very successful UEFA Cup showings and are looking to duplicate that at a higher level. Roma very nearly pipped Inter for the Serie A title last season, Marseille are the defending Ligue 1 champs and have added talent since then, Benfica are talented and the defending Portuguese Liga champs, and Valencia, despite losing Davids Villa and Silva, are still a tough side. We’re much better than Zenit, but traveling halfway around the world to play in the freezing cold is always a very, very tough task. Greek teams area always tough to beat in Greece, but honestly, I think Panathinaikos is probably the best possible draw we could get out of this pot. But no easy outs there.

I’d say if I had my druthers, other than Panathinaikos, I’d like our chances against Valencia, a Werder Bremen side now without Mesut Ozil, Shakhtar, or Benfica, too. Shakhtar would be intriguing for a number of reasons, but from an Arsenal perspective it would give Eduardo a game back at the Emirates, which is sure to be a goosebumps moment. But please no Madrid, Roma, or Marseille.

But the bottom line, remember, is that two teams from each group advance. So really, the team we draw from Pot B isn’t nearly as important as the teams we draw from Pots C & D, because as long as we finish ahead of them we make it into the knockout rounds. Let’s take a look at those now:

Pot C:

Tottenham (30) (NOTE: cannot be drawn in a group with Arsenal)
Rangers (31)
Ajax (32)
Schalke 04 (35)
FC Basel (38)
Braga (48)
FC Copenhagen (60)
Spartak Moscow (63)

A real mixed bag here. We can’t draw Tottenham since we’re from the same nation, so they’re not a possibility. I wouldn’t particularly mind drawing Rangers, although that could be a tricky fixture in Glasgow. Ajax is a good side with a lot of history, but they are a shell of their former selves and their style of play would suit us well. I’d really prefer to avoid Schalke 04, because they’re a very disciplined side that finished 2nd in the Bundesliga last season and could give us a very difficult couple of matches. I’m sure Basel are a decent, well-organized side, and the Swiss champions might give us more of a game than expected at home, but I can’t say I’d be too sad to see them in Arsenal’s group. Then comes Braga, the other team I’d prefer to avoid. While they’d be entertaining as all get out (anyone who watched their match against Sevilla yesterday can verify this), they might really give us a tough match or two. We shouldn’t have any problem with Copenhagen if it comes to that. And the group is rounded out by Spartak Moscow, who I’d also like to avoid, just because that would be a massive road trip during the winter months and would leave us in ruins for that weekend’s fixture. Although, on the plus side, their offseason is in the winter, so we might get to play them during their winter holiday when they’re out of match fitness. Overall, then, I’d say let’s please, please avoid Schalke 04 here, and Braga and Spartak, too, if possible.

Pot D:

Hapoel Tel Aviv (73)
FC Twente (84)
Rubin Kazan (94)
Auxerre (101)
CFR Cluj (111)
Partizan (123)
Zilina (150)
Bursaspor (180)

Well, I’d say I really don’t want to face Auxerre, who is a very, very good side for being in Pot 4. I wouldn’t fancy that away match at all. Rubin Kazan stunned everyone by getting a result against Barca last season at Camp Nou, Cluj did the same a few years back against Chelsea, I believe. But honestly, there’s not anyone I would be too bothered by in this one. Although a lot of those teams would be pretty long trips. So let’s please avoid Auxerre, and try to avoid Kazan, too. Other than that, we can take whoever out of this group.

The draw is pretty early tomorrow, I’ll obviously update after it goes down.

*************

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Category: Arsenal News, Champions League, Fixtures

Tags: Arsenal News, Champions League, Fixtures
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DarrenOh I dunno... maybe it has something do to with when a bid is turned down as insufficient funds, other clubs don't BID THE EXACT SAME PRICE?HomeyAnother question... why does it seem like all of our purchases in the transfer market drag on forever? At least the 3 this summer have. (And yes, Chamakh wasn't technically a purchase, but that went on and on before becoming official.)
It seems with other teams, you just wake up one day and read they've acquired a player.HomeyHaven't been able to keep write lately since I was getting my head handed to me in court, but it doesn't sound like I missed much.
The co-efficient thing is weird somewhat. Let's pretend for a minute that Man City wins the EPL this season and then spends another 100 million pounds next summer. Would they be in Pot C or D because they don't have any real European history?
Goonertasaray makes a good point that a team can rise up from nowhere and be good, but have no history and be in Pot D. I don't know anything about that team though.
And Darren, I was going to mention something about the Rams' purchase today too, but you beat me to it. I read he paid something like $750 million for that other 60% share. I hope that doesn't take anything away from Wenger's massive war chest. Ha ha.jturphyI for one would hate to get Tel Aviv in our group as well. That would be a brutal trip. Not as bad as a Russian winter, but not a whole lot better.GoonertasarayTrust me on this one, we do NOT want Bursa. Their UEFA coefficient is so low since they've never qualified for European play, but they are REALLY, REALLY GOOD. They pipped Fenerbahce for the Turkish title last year (which made me incredibly happy as a Galatasaray fan) and have a couple of the Turkish team's young stars on their side (Sercan Yildirim is the biggest one). As someone who follows Turkish soccer, I can tell you that the long-ass haul to Bursa would be seriously bad news for us. An ideal draw would have to be something like Bremen, Copenhagen and Twente.CasimirIt's an easy answer Gigi. Its because its Arsenal FC, and we're by far the greatest team the world has ever seen. That's why they can't stop talking about us.GigiStoney, talking about pathetic reasons like Barza players instead of celebrating WC talking about us, so instead of being proud of being in UCL, proud of...coming to get us..? sad... :)DarrenIn an unrelated, but related note:
Just heard on the radio that Stan Kroneke (better known as Silent Stan) and been given approval by the NFL to buy the remaining 60% of shares for the St. Louis Rams (he has 40%), provided he gives up ownership of his stakes in the Denver Nuggets and Colorado Avalanche to his sons.
There was no mention of his stake in Arsenal, typically.StoneySay we are champions league say we are champions league. The mighty spurs are coming to get you goons.GigiI want an easy group dudes, but I am afraid that Karma will come knocking at our door saying: I gave u chances last two seasons and you didnt take them, although like Martin said, we got knocked out by good teams; but then again those good teams had weak points that we (mean AW) never got to because he (imo) sometimes stick too much to his team play, whereas Mou (as much as I hate him) can really, really do that.

The team looks stronger, with Squizz and a new keeper it would be awsome, but we have to get to the point where we fight other and not defend our style necesarilly.

I love Arsha, he wants to win the UCL, he will bring it to us :)!!!!SairaxI think the draw is at noon ET tomorrowSairaxI just meant that against Standard Liege for example, we had to come back from 2-0 after like 5 min, and we got that draw at Alkmaar. I don't want the group of death or anything don't get me wrong! But if we get a group like the balanced one you guys were talking about I wouldn't mind too much. I just don't want us to fly to Russia in the middle of winter!DarrenToo complacent? They were top in their group last year? And were able to rest injuried players in the final game in the last 2 years.
I'm more than ok with the easy group stage. We will be tested more than enough throughout the season.FualI would actually want a group which would be challenging. This way we would be able to test ourselves, not like last year when we walked through the group. Hopefully we will get a new keeper and maybe another defensive addition. Then we could test out ourselves and hopefully gain confidence for the league and in Europe.SairaxI want a group without too much crazy travel. Also I'd like something tougher than we've gotten in the last couple seasons. We always get too complacent and we need to show that we can get through playing against really good teams.CasimirI should add Jelen is more fragile than RVP is so there's a 50% chance he won't even be playing in group play.CasimirYeah, Auxerre's coefficient is so low because they've traditionally been a mid-table team in Ligue 1 but they've been slowly adding talent or their own prospects have been playing better so they've slowly crept their way up to European competition. I only really see highlights from them, but it seems like they play a very direct game, and its predicated around getting long balls for Jelen to chase down, who is very very fast. He's older now so a little slower, but in WC 2006 he ran Schweinsteger ragged, though he didn't net any goals that WC. So against larger clubs like ourselves, I think they have a puncher's chance if they get a lucky break where Jelen can run free.JGDream Draw- Arsenal, Pana, Basel, Hapoel Tel Aviv

Nightmare Draw- Arsenal, Real Madrid, Schalke 04, Rubin Kazan.

Well Rounded/Balanced Draw- Arsenal, Marsielle, Braga, AuxerreIlandinhoI'd love to see Eduardo back at the Emirates.blog comments powered by Disqus